基于反距离权重插值法与BP神经网络对浙江某电镀厂遗留地块土壤重金属健康风险评价及预测
Evaluation and Prediction of Heavy Metal Health Risk in Soils Left Over from an Electroplating Plant in Zhejiang Province Based on BP Neural Network and Inverse-Distance Weighting
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摘要: 为电镀厂拆迁遗留地块污染恢复提供理论支撑，以浙江省湖州某已停产的电镀厂为研究对象，采用内梅罗指数法、人体健康风险评估模型对研究区域内土壤重金属浓度空间分布进行特征分析，并对区域内土壤重金属污染对人类的健康风险进行评价。通过MATLAB构建的BP(Back Propagation)神经网络预测模型预测深层土壤对人体的健康风险，运用ArcGIS软件使用反距离权重插值法绘制地块健康风险预测分布图。预测结果显示Cr、Ni为研究区主要污染物，地下储罐埋地Cr的致癌风险达到0.35属于高致癌风险，表层土壤中重金属超标主要集中在地下储罐埋地、镀锌镀镍车间及临时废弃物堆积区，可能是由电镀作业地面防渗措施不足及电镀废弃物处置不当造成的。构建的BP神经网络预测模型显示，调查地块内Cr、As、Ni在深层土壤(2.0~2.5 m深度)中仍然具有致癌风险，且Cr的致癌风险属于较高水平，Ni、Cr、As、Zn、Cu等在2.0~2.5 m处土壤中已无非致癌风险。Abstract: The study area was a derelict electroplating factory in Huzhou of Zhejiang Province, and the health risk of soil heavy metal pollution in the region by means of the Nemero index method and human health risk assessment models was undertaken to analyze the characteristics of the spatial distribution of soil heavy metal concentration, in order to provide theoretical support for environmental pollution recovery of electroplating plant demolition. A BP (Back Propagation) neural network prediction model was constructed by MATLAB to forecast the human health risk of the heavy metal contamination in deep soil. At the same time, the inverse distance weight interpolation method in ArcGIS software was used to draw the distribution map of the predicted health risk. The results revealed that the studied area was largely contaminated by Cr and Ni. The carcinogenic risk of Cr in buried underground storage tanks was 0.35, which was a high risk for cancer. The excessive heavy metals in the surface soil were mainly concentrated in underground storage tank burial, galvanizing and nickel-plating workshops, and temporary waste accumulation areas, which may be caused by insufficient anti-seepage measures on the electroplating operation ground and improper disposal of electroplating waste. The constructed BP neural network prediction model showed that Cr, As, and Ni in the plot still have a carcinogenic risk in the deep soil at a depth of 2.0～2.5 m; Ni, Cr, As, Zn, Cu, and other elements no longer have non carcinogenic risks in the soil at a depth of 2.0～2.5 m.
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Key words:
- heavy metal /
- BP neural network /
- health risk evaluation /
- spatial distribution
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