ARIMA模型在苏州河总磷预测中的应用

黄杰; 钱瑾; 殷浩文

环境工程学报

ARIMA模型在苏州河总磷预测中的应用

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黄杰, 钱瑾, 殷浩文. ARIMA模型在苏州河总磷预测中的应用[J]. 环境工程学报, 2007, 1(1): 139-143.

引用本文:

黄杰, 钱瑾, 殷浩文. ARIMA模型在苏州河总磷预测中的应用[J]. 环境工程学报, 2007, 1(1): 139-143.

Huang Jie, Qian Jin, Yin Haowen. Application of ARIMA model in forecasting total phosphorus of Suzhou Creek[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering, 2007, 1(1): 139-143.

Citation:

Huang Jie, Qian Jin, Yin Haowen. Application of ARIMA model in forecasting total phosphorus of Suzhou Creek[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering, 2007, 1(1): 139-143.

ARIMA模型在苏州河总磷预测中的应用

1.
上海工程技术大学城市轨道交通学院，上海 201620
2.
上海市环境监测中心，上海 200233
3.
上海市检测中心生物与安全检测实验室，上海 201203
基金项目:
中图分类号: O212

Application of ARIMA model in forecasting total phosphorus of Suzhou Creek

1.
College of Urban Railway Transportation，Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620
2.
Shanghai Environmental Monitoring Center, Shanghai 200233
3.
Bioassay and Safety Assessment Laboratory，Shanghai Academy of Public Measurement，Shanghai 201203
Fund Project:

摘要: 目前苏州河面临潜在的富营养化危机，氮、磷含量较高的污染源是富营养化形成的直接诱因。选择总磷指标为研究对象，介绍运用时间序列分析法对总磷进行ARIMA建模预测，确定ARIMA（11,0,0）即AR（11）为最终模型，用1986～2003年数据对2004和2005年进行预测，结果得出苏州河总磷在未来2年呈波动下降趋势，最终在0.4～0.6 mg/L之间上下波动，但仍高于地面水V类标准。模型适用于苏州河总磷的短期预测，完善苏州河富营养化预测管理系统。
- 总磷 /
- 时间序列分析 /
- ARIMA模型 /
- 富营养化
Abstract: The Suzhou Creek faces the potential risk of eutrophication recently. The pollution effluent with highlyconcentrated nitrogen and phosphorus is the main reason. Total phosphorus was selected as the key factor and introduced to the ARIMA model to set up a method on forecasting total phosphorus in the creek. Eighteen years data of total phosphorus, 1986～2003, from Wuninglu section was used to get parameters of the model and the ARIMA(11,0,0) model, AR(11) was confirmed as the final model to predict the total phosphorus in the creek. Forecasting result shows that the concentration of total phosphorus will be decreased and have a fluctuation within a narrow range in future，finally fluctuate between 0.4mg/L and 0.6mg/L. The value is also above surfacewater standard V. This model can be applied on short time forecast with total phosphorus in Suzhou Creek and improve management system of eutrophication.
- total phosphorus /
- time series analysis /
- ARIMA model /
- eutrophication

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黄杰, 钱瑾, 殷浩文. ARIMA模型在苏州河总磷预测中的应用[J]. 环境工程学报, 2007, 1(1): 139-143.

引用本文:

黄杰, 钱瑾, 殷浩文. ARIMA模型在苏州河总磷预测中的应用[J]. 环境工程学报, 2007, 1(1): 139-143.

Huang Jie, Qian Jin, Yin Haowen. Application of ARIMA model in forecasting total phosphorus of Suzhou Creek[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering, 2007, 1(1): 139-143.

Citation:

Huang Jie, Qian Jin, Yin Haowen. Application of ARIMA model in forecasting total phosphorus of Suzhou Creek[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering, 2007, 1(1): 139-143.

ARIMA模型在苏州河总磷预测中的应用

1. 上海工程技术大学城市轨道交通学院，上海 201620
2. 上海市环境监测中心，上海 200233
3. 上海市检测中心生物与安全检测实验室，上海 201203

收稿日期: 2006-11-13

基金项目:

关键词:

摘要: 目前苏州河面临潜在的富营养化危机，氮、磷含量较高的污染源是富营养化形成的直接诱因。选择总磷指标为研究对象，介绍运用时间序列分析法对总磷进行ARIMA建模预测，确定ARIMA（11,0,0）即AR（11）为最终模型，用1986～2003年数据对2004和2005年进行预测，结果得出苏州河总磷在未来2年呈波动下降趋势，最终在0.4～0.6 mg/L之间上下波动，但仍高于地面水V类标准。模型适用于苏州河总磷的短期预测，完善苏州河富营养化预测管理系统。

English Abstract

Application of ARIMA model in forecasting total phosphorus of Suzhou Creek

1. College of Urban Railway Transportation，Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620
2. Shanghai Environmental Monitoring Center, Shanghai 200233
3. Bioassay and Safety Assessment Laboratory，Shanghai Academy of Public Measurement，Shanghai 201203

Received Date: 2006-11-13

Fund Project:

Keywords:

Abstract: The Suzhou Creek faces the potential risk of eutrophication recently. The pollution effluent with highlyconcentrated nitrogen and phosphorus is the main reason. Total phosphorus was selected as the key factor and introduced to the ARIMA model to set up a method on forecasting total phosphorus in the creek. Eighteen years data of total phosphorus, 1986～2003, from Wuninglu section was used to get parameters of the model and the ARIMA(11,0,0) model, AR(11) was confirmed as the final model to predict the total phosphorus in the creek. Forecasting result shows that the concentration of total phosphorus will be decreased and have a fluctuation within a narrow range in future，finally fluctuate between 0.4mg/L and 0.6mg/L. The value is also above surfacewater standard V. This model can be applied on short time forecast with total phosphorus in Suzhou Creek and improve management system of eutrophication.

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ARIMA模型在苏州河总磷预测中的应用

Application of ARIMA model in forecasting total phosphorus of Suzhou Creek

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ARIMA模型在苏州河总磷预测中的应用

English Abstract

Application of ARIMA model in forecasting total phosphorus of Suzhou Creek

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