除草剂苯噻草胺土壤滞留因子的蒙特卡洛模拟
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF THE SOIL RETARDATION FACTOR OF THE HERBICIDE MEFENACET
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摘要: 采用简单随机抽样和拉丁超立方抽样两种不同方法对除草剂苯噻草胺的土壤滞留因子模型进行蒙特卡洛模拟.结果表明,不同的土壤条件下,苯噻草胺的滞留因子(R)的数值呈Beta分布,最大极值为176.5,最小极值为3.3,最可能的取值在20—30的范围内.结果还显示了采用拉丁超立方抽样方法能够显著降低抽样的不均匀性,进而能降低Beta分布拟合的不确定性.本文还通过色轴在4维图上形象地表征了R值的变化.Abstract: Both Simple Random Sampling and Latin Hypercube Sampling were applied to simulate the model of the soil retardation factor of the herbicide mefenacet by Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the probability distribution function of the soil retardation factor,R,is the Beta function,the R value varies from 3.3 to 176.5, and the most likely value of R is between 20 and 30. Besides, the simulations using Latin Hypercube Sampling can reduce the unevenness of sampling effectively, while the uncertainty of the fitting Beta distribution also decreased as a result. furthermore,the variety of R was visualized by the four dimensions figure using the color map as the fourth dimension.
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Key words:
- soil retardation factor /
- Monte Carlo Simulation /
- Latin Hypercube Sampling /
- uncertainty
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