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随着我国工业化和城市化的迅速发展,能源消耗日益增长,城市人口迅速膨胀,机动车保有量激增,导致NOx、一氧化碳(CO)和VOCs等臭氧(O3)前体物排放量不断增加[1-4],O3逐渐成为我国城市环境空气的主要污染物,严重威胁了人类健康和植物生长[5],也引起了众多学者的广泛关注. 近年来,大量研究围绕光化学烟雾和臭氧污染展开,结果表明,在短期内排放源大致不变的情况下,气象条件是影响臭氧污染最重要的因素,臭氧污染典型气象条件表现为太阳辐射强、气温高、相对湿度适宜、地面小风速及特定的风向[6-9].
宁夏回族自治区地处中国西北部内陆,气候干燥、太阳辐射强,日照时间长[10],为臭氧前体物的转化提供了有利的气象条件,加之近年来,受城市化及宁东能源化工基地(简称“宁东基地”)污染排放影响,造成宁夏臭氧污染天气频发. 特别是2017年银川市日最大8小时浓度(O3−8 h)值超出二级标准,达到轻度及以上污染达48 d,臭氧污染引起了自治区政府及相关部门高度重视. 近年来,学者们对银川市臭氧污染及气象条件特征等方面开展了分析研究[11-14],结果表明,银川市臭氧浓度日变化呈单峰性,午后易出现臭氧超标,臭氧浓度与紫外辐射强度和气温呈正相关、与相对湿度呈负相关. 目前,对宁夏其它地市的臭氧污染的气象条件特征研究较少,宁夏臭氧污染预报预警技术支撑薄弱. 按中国气象局要求,从2018年起,每年5—9月全国各省市开展臭氧污染气象条件等级预报业务,但由于缺乏技术支撑,目前宁夏臭氧污染气象条件等级预报业务也仅是以经验为主,随意性大,精细化程度不够,预报服务效果不理性.
本文针对宁夏臭氧污染现状及臭氧污染等级客观精细化预报服务业务需求,利用环境和气象数据,采用相关性分析和概率统计方法,从臭氧污染高影响气象因子着手,在分析各地市臭氧污染气象条件特征基础上,综合考虑各气象因子对臭氧生成的贡献大小,建立宁夏臭氧污染气象条件评价指标体系;基于评分及预报效果检验评估结果,参照《全国臭氧气象预报业务规范》,建立臭氧污染气象条件指数预报模型和等级预报标准. 研究结果将为宁夏臭氧污染气象条件客观化精细化预报提供技术支撑,实现臭氧污染气象条件定量化精细化监测,为宁夏各地市臭氧污染预报预警及科学应对臭氧污染提供技术支撑和决策参考.
宁夏臭氧污染气象条件特征及等级预报标准体系研究
Study on the characteristics of meteorological conditions and grade forecast standard system of ozone pollution in Ningxia
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摘要: 利用2017—2019年期间每年的5—9月宁夏各地臭氧逐小时质量浓度数据和气象要素数据,基于相关性分析和概率统计方法,在分析臭氧敏感气象要素特征基础上,综合各气象因子对臭氧生成贡献大小,并考虑各地海拔高低、污染状况等,建立了宁夏臭氧污染气象条件指数预报模型及等级预报标准. 结果表明,宁夏各地臭氧浓度与气温均呈明显正相关,相关系数为0.64—0.72,臭氧浓度和超标率随着气温升高而明显升高;与相对湿度呈较明显负相关,相关系数为−0.36—−0.55,相对湿度≤55%的较干燥环境臭氧浓度和超标率相对较高;与风速呈弱正相关,相关系数为0.11—0.32,风速在2—3 m·s−1之间时,臭氧浓度和超标率较高;总云量在3成及以下时,臭氧浓度和超标率较大. 宁夏臭氧污染气象条件指数预报模型主要由气温、相对湿度、总云量、风速评分构成,并将海拔高度引入评分体系,间接代表了太阳辐射对臭氧浓度的影响. 预报效果检验评估显示,各地臭氧污染气象条件等级预报与臭氧浓度实际等级较为一致,且气象条件等级越高,各地臭氧浓度和超标率也越大,指数预报模型算法及等级预报分级标准可为宁夏臭氧污染气象条件客观精细化预报业务提供技术支撑,对臭氧污染预报有指导意义.Abstract: Using hourly ozone mass concentration and meteorological data from May to September in Ningxia, 2017—2019, based on correlation analysis and probability statistics methods, and on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of ozone sensitive meteorological elements, considering the contribution of various meteorological factors to ozone generation comprehensively, the Ningxia ozone pollution meteorological condition index forecast model and grade forecast standard were established. The results show that the ozone concentration and temperature in over Ningxia are obviously positively correlated, the correlation coefficient is from 0.64 to 0.72, the ozone concentration and the ozone exceed ratio increase significantly as the temperature rises; Significantly negatively correlated with relative humidity, the correlation coefficient is from −0.36—−0.55, relatively high ozone concentration and over standard rate in a relatively dry environment with a relative humidity of 45% or less; Weak positive correlation with wind speed, the correlation coefficient is from 0.11 to 0.32, when the wind speed is between 2—3 m·s−1, the ozone concentration and exceed ratio are high; When the total cloud cover is 30% or less, the ozone concentration and exceed ratio are relatively high. The Ningxia ozone pollution meteorological condition index forecast model is composed of temperature, relative humidity, total cloud cover, and wind speed score. And introducing altitude into the scoring system, indirectly represents the effect of solar radiation on ozone concentration. The forecast effect evaluation shows that the forecast level of meteorological conditions of ozone pollution is consistent with the actual level of ozone concentration. The higher the level of meteorological conditions, the greater the ozone concentration and the exceed ratio. The algorithm of index forecast model and the classification standard of grade forecast can provide technical support for objective and fine forecast of meteorological conditions of ozone pollution in Ningxia, and is instructive to ozone pollution forecast.
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Key words:
- ozone pollution /
- meteorological conditions /
- index forecast /
- grade standard /
- Ningxia
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表 1 宁夏五地市及宁东基地气象要素与臭氧浓度相关系数
Table 1. Correlation coefficients of meteorological elements and ozone concentration in five cities of Ningxia and Ningdong base
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Station气温
Temperature湿度
Humidity风速
Wind speed风向
Wind direction云量
Cloud cover降水量
Precipitation银川 0.67 −0.36 0.18 0.013 −0.022 −0.039 石嘴山 0.71 −0.49 0.24 −0.018 −0.021 0.041 吴忠 0.69 −0.42 0.23 0.015 −0.101 −0.059 中卫 0.71 −0.49 0.24 −0.102 −0.026 0.026 固原 0.64 −0.55 0.32 −0.032 0.025 −0.132 宁东 0.72 −0.42 0.11 0.011 −0.011 −0.021 全区平均 0.69 −0.46 0.22 −0.019 −0.026 −0.031 表 2 气温基础分(Ts)
Table 2. Basic temperature score (Ts)
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Station气温/℃ Temperature T< 20 20≤T<25 25≤T<30 30≤T<33 33≤T<35 T≥ 35 银川 平均浓度/(μg·m−3) 70.8 99.7 133.4 159.4 165.5 184.0 超标率(E)/% 0.0 0.3 4.2 10.8 12.8 19.2 气温基础分(Ts) 0 1 3 5 6 8 石嘴山 平均浓度/(μg·m−3) 76.4 104.9 132.9 157.1 167.0 181.1 超标率(E)/% 0.0 0.0 1.5 10.3 12.1 18.6 气温基础分(Ts) 0 1 2 5 6 8 吴忠 平均浓度/(μg·m−3) 67.5 91.9 121.8 141.3 143.5 150.4 超标率(E)/% 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 6.5 10.8 气温基础分(Ts) 0 1 2 3 4 5 中卫 平均浓度/(μg·m−3) 71.4 101.8 122.9 138.2 143.0 144.5 超标率(E)/% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.1 6.5 气温基础分(Ts) 0 1 2 2 3 4 固原 平均浓度/(μg·m−3) 69.6 101.9 118.8 130.3 144.7 超标率(E)/% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.1 气温基础分(Ts) 0 1 1 2 3 宁东 平均浓度/(μg·m−3) 74.4 99.4 121.1 141.2 144.4 165.8 超标率(E)/% 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 6.2 8.1 气温基础分(Ts) 0 1 2 3 4 5 表 3 气温与相对湿度联合评分
Table 3. Combined scores of temperature and relative humidity
相对湿度(Rhs)/%
Relative humidity气温/℃
TemperatureT<20 20≤T<25 25≤T<30 30≤T<33 33≤T<35 T≥35 Rh<15 0 1 3 6 7 9 15≤Rh<25 0 1 3 7 8 10 25≤Rh<35 0 1 3 7 8 10 35≤Rh<45 0 1 3 7 8 10 45≤Rh<55 0 1 3 5 6 8 55≤Rh<65 0 1 3 5 6 8 65≤Rh<75 0 1 3 4 5 7 Rh≥75 0 1 3 4 5 7 气温基础分(Ts) 0 1 3 5 6 8 表 4 单独评分(联合评分−气温基础分)
Table 4. Individual scores (joint score-basic temperature score)
气象要素
Meteorological element气温/℃ Temperature T<20 20≤T<25 25≤T<30 30≤T<33 33≤T<35 T≥35 相对湿度/% Rh<15 0 0 0 1 1 1 15≤Rh<25 0 0 0 2 2 2 25≤Rh<35 0 0 0 2 2 2 35≤Rh<45 0 0 0 2 2 2 45≤Rh<55 0 0 0 0 0 0 55≤Rh<65 0 0 0 0 0 0 65≤Rh<75 0 0 0 −1 −1 −1 Rh≥75 0 0 0 −1 −1 −1 总云量/成 0—3 0 0 0 1 1 1 4—7 0 0 0 0 0 0 8—10 0 0 0 −1 −1 −1 风速/(m·s−1) V<1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1≤V<2 0 0 0 1 1 1 2≤V<3 0 0 0 1 1 1 3≤V<4 0 0 0 0 0 0 4≤V<5 0 0 0 −1 −1 −1 V≥5 0 0 0 −1 −1 −1 表 5 臭氧污染气象条件预报分级标准及等级描述
Table 5. Classification standards and descriptions of meteorological conditions for ozone pollution
臭氧污染气象条件指数OPMCI总评分
Classification standards and descriptions of meteorological等级
Grade描述
Description≤2分 1级 很不利于臭氧生成 3—5分 2级 不利于臭氧生成 6—8分 3级 较利于臭氧生成 9—10分 4级 有利于臭氧生成 11—12分 5级 非常有利于臭氧生成 >12分 6级 极有利于臭氧生成 -
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