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基于小波变换的ARIMA模型在水质预测中的应用研究

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石子泊, 邹志红. 基于小波变换的ARIMA模型在水质预测中的应用研究[J]. 环境工程学报, 2014, 8(10): 4550-4554.
引用本文: 石子泊, 邹志红. 基于小波变换的ARIMA模型在水质预测中的应用研究[J]. 环境工程学报, 2014, 8(10): 4550-4554.
shu
Shi Zibo, Zou Zhihong. Applied study of ARIMA model based on wavelet analysis on water quality prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering, 2014, 8(10): 4550-4554.
Citation: Shi Zibo, Zou Zhihong. Applied study of ARIMA model based on wavelet analysis on water quality prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering, 2014, 8(10): 4550-4554.
shu

基于小波变换的ARIMA模型在水质预测中的应用研究

  • 1.

    北京航空航天大学经济管理学院, 北京 100191

  • 基金项目:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目（51178018，71031001）

Applied study of ARIMA model based on wavelet analysis on water quality prediction

  • 1.

    School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China

  • Fund Project:

  • 摘要: 近年来，黑龙江黑河流域的水质状况逐年恶化，而溶解氧（DO）是研究水体自净能力和污染程度的一个重要指标。通过收集该地区2010年48周的DO浓度数据，经由小波变换对数据进行高频和低频的分离，再分别建立ARIMA模型，由此预测未来5期的DO浓度值的变化。结果表明，该模型较好地反映了DO浓度值的变化趋势，预测精度更高，同时，反映出DO浓度值随季节的变化规律，以期为该地区的水质分析预测和水体保护工作提供参考。
    Abstract: In recent years,the water quality of Heihe River,Heilongjiang Province,is getting worse year by year.Dissolved oxygen (DO) is an important indicator to determine the self-purification ability and pollution condition of the river.Wavelet transform was used to distinguish high frequency data and low frequency data for the DO concentration data of 48 weeks in 2010.Then,ARIMA model was established for these two kinds of data and was used to predict DO concentration of the next five weeks.The results show that this model can reflect the trend of DO concentration and predict the data precisely.According to the analysis results,DO concentration has change rules with the seasons which may provide reference for the water quality analysis and water protection in this region.
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  • 收稿日期:  2013-10-26
  • 刊出日期:  2014-09-28
石子泊, 邹志红. 基于小波变换的ARIMA模型在水质预测中的应用研究[J]. 环境工程学报, 2014, 8(10): 4550-4554.
引用本文: 石子泊, 邹志红. 基于小波变换的ARIMA模型在水质预测中的应用研究[J]. 环境工程学报, 2014, 8(10): 4550-4554.
shu
Shi Zibo, Zou Zhihong. Applied study of ARIMA model based on wavelet analysis on water quality prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering, 2014, 8(10): 4550-4554.
Citation: Shi Zibo, Zou Zhihong. Applied study of ARIMA model based on wavelet analysis on water quality prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering, 2014, 8(10): 4550-4554.
shu

基于小波变换的ARIMA模型在水质预测中的应用研究

  • 1. 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院, 北京 100191
  • 收稿日期:  2013-10-26
基金项目:

国家自然科学基金资助项目（51178018，71031001）

摘要: 近年来，黑龙江黑河流域的水质状况逐年恶化，而溶解氧（DO）是研究水体自净能力和污染程度的一个重要指标。通过收集该地区2010年48周的DO浓度数据，经由小波变换对数据进行高频和低频的分离，再分别建立ARIMA模型，由此预测未来5期的DO浓度值的变化。结果表明，该模型较好地反映了DO浓度值的变化趋势，预测精度更高，同时，反映出DO浓度值随季节的变化规律，以期为该地区的水质分析预测和水体保护工作提供参考。

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