有机污染物生物降解性预测模型
Predicting Models for Biodegradability of Organic Pollutants
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摘要: 生物降解性是评估污染物环境持久性的重要依据,也是化学品是否获准生产及进入市场的评价指标。采用17位生物降解领域专家评估的生物降解等级数据,通过功能树(FT)算法建立了包含15个分子结构参数的初级生物降解和最终生物降解预测模型。外部验证结果表明,模型具有较好的预测准确性,初级生物降解性加权准确度(weighted accuracy,WA):训练集WA=84.1%,验证集WA=78.9%;最终生物降解性WA:训练集WA=91.0%;验证集WA=83.6%。预测正确性对化合物的杠杆值作图,表征了生物降解性模型的应用域。Abstract: Biodegradability is significant for the evaluation of environmental persistence of pollutants, which has become a criterion of evaluation on a chemical allowing to be manufactured and market. The primary biodegradation and ultimate biodegradation models which contained 15 molecular structure descriptors were developed employing 17 biodegradation experts evaluating rating data and functional tree algorithm. The external validation results indicated that the models have a good predictive ability. The weighted accuracy (WA) of primary biodegradation is 84.1% and 78.9% for training set and validation set, respectively. WA for ultimate biodegradation is 91.0% and 83.6% for training set and validation set, respectively. Moreover, the applicability domain of the biodegradation models were characterized by the plots of prediction accuracy versus leverage values of chemicals.
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